Factors Affecting the Exports of Pakistan to United Arab Emirates: A Time Series Analysis

Abstract

The UAE is one of Pakistan's largest trading partners in the Middle East region. The trade between the two countries is characterized by a significant volume of imports and exports and substantial investment flows. The research goal was to analyze the factors affecting Pakistan's exports to the United Arab Emirates. Various variables were chosen, and time series data from 1975 to 2022 was used for the analysis. Information on these indicators was sourced from the World Bank, the Federal Bureau of Statistics in Islamabad, Pakistan, the State Bank of Pakistan, the Pakistan Economic Survey, International Financial Statistics, and the International Monetary Fund. For this purpose, the Pooled OLS model was used to estimate the impact of different factors. According to the results of the study for determining the factors of exports of Pakistan to United Arab Emirates, The GDP of both Pakistan and the UAE, along with the inflation rate in Pakistan and the exchange rate in Pakistan, are significant predictors for the dependent variable. The effects of population in both countries and inflation in UAE are not statistically significant, indicating that they may not be as crucial for understanding the variation in the dependent variable. As such, any policy or strategy should focus on the significant variables for effective outcomes.