Drivers of Crop Diversification: Understanding the Global and South Asian Shift from Cotton to Competing Crops

Abstract

The cotton industry, which has traditionally served as one of the key drivers of economic growth in Asia, Africa, and Latin America, is currently undergoing a radical structural change. Cotton production has been falling in key areas like Pakistan, India, China, and parts of sub-Saharan Africa for the last 20 years. Instead, farmers are shifting their focus to growing other crops such as soybeans, pulses, and fruits and vegetables. This change is a good illustration of the complexity in relationships between economic, environmental, and institutional determinants. This review aims to synthesize global and South Asian research to identify the key factors driving the decline of cotton agriculture and the resulting migration of people. It explores how volatile commodity prices, changing climatic patterns, pest resistance, rising input prices, and evolving policy processes interact to shape decisions made by farmers. The analysis also explains the consequences of these changes to the rural economic systems, the sustainability of agro-ecological practices, and food security in general. In the end, it highlights potential research and policy pathways that may improve the resilience and competitiveness of cotton and alternative agricultural systems.