Poverty, Inequality, and Crime: An Empirical Investigation of Pakistan's Urban Crime Dynamics

Abstract

This study investigated the relationship between poverty, income inequality, unemployment, urbanization, and urban crime in Pakistan over the period 2005–2023. Using secondary data from official sources, including the Pakistan Bureau of Statistics and international economic databases, the study employed descriptive statistics, correlation analysis, and multiple regression techniques to examine the effects of socio-economic factors on urban crime. Results indicated that poverty (β = 4.12, p < 0.01) and income inequality (β = 3.85, p < 0.01) were the most significant predictors of crime, while unemployment had a moderate effect (β = 2.14, p < 0.05), and urbanization showed a marginal effect (β = 1.76, p = 0.061). The model explained 63% of the variance in urban crime (R² = 0.63). Correlation analysis revealed strong positive relationships between crime and both poverty (r = 0.62, p < 0.01) and income inequality (r = 0.58, p < 0.01), while unemployment and urbanization exhibited weaker correlations. These findings emphasized the critical role of socio-economic deprivation and structural disparities in shaping urban crime dynamics in Pakistan. The study recommended comprehensive poverty alleviation, equitable income distribution, employment generation, and strengthened governance to reduce urban crime. Future research could incorporate qualitative approaches, neighborhood-level analysis, and geospatial methods to deepen understanding and improve crime prevention strategies. The study contributed to criminology literature by providing robust empirical evidence linking poverty, inequality, and urban crime in a developing country context.